Interactive: Will Trump or Harris Win the 2024 Presidential Election?

Last updated 9/6/24

AllSides is tracking the odds of a Kamala Harris presidency or a second Donald Trump presidency as a result of the 2024 Presidential Election.

We’ll be updating our model weekly until October, and more often as we get closer to November 5th, Election Day. Follow along as we explore how the odds shift over time.

Kamala Harris Currently Has a 57% Chance of Being Elected President

Our projection indicates that states representing 261 Electoral College votes are at least leaning towards Harris, while 218 are at least leaning towards Trump. Another 59 are toss-ups. 270 is needed to win.

There are currently four states projected as toss-up states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina. Maine's 2nd Congressional District, representing 1 Electoral College vote, is also a toss-up.

Our model currently indicates Kamala Harris has a 57% chance of winning the election, effectively making the race a toss-up.

National Polls May Forecast a Potentially Close Popular Vote

Currently, Kamala Harris is ahead of Donald Trump by a very slim margin in the national polls, according to 538 (Center bias). However, it’s important to note that the Presidential Election is decided not by popular vote but Electoral College votes.

View the latest news, polls, and examples of media bias around the election in AllSides’ 2024 Presidential Election page. Check back again soon to see updates to the model.

How This Model Works

The AllSides 2024 Presidential Election Forecast Model takes into account national and state horse race polling, favorability polling, history of past elections, and more to estimate the percentage vote share of each candidate in the 2024 presidential election and the probability that they will win a district, state, and the electoral college.

The data visualizations indicate the probability of each candidate winning a state and how many electoral college votes are predicted to go to each candidate. “Solid” states have a 90% or greater probability of going to that candidate, “Likely” have 70-89.9%, “Lean” have 60-69.9%, and “Toss-Up” states have less than 60% probability of going to either candidate.

To develop an expected vote share for each candidate, the model incorporates the inherent state lean (ISL), favorability rating, primary results, and polling averages. We created the ISL using the presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial general election results from 2012 to present day to determine what the expected vote share in each state would be in an election where the popular vote was equal between the Democrat and Republican nominees.

FiveThirtyEight’s favorability ratings of Vice President Kamala Harris, in combination with a likely voter weight, and allocation of undecided voters were used to determine the expected vote share for the candidates in the 2024 United States Presidential Election. The presidential primaries of 2024 were used to determine the expected turnout for the Democrat and Republican nominees for President.

To determine the expected vote share per candidate in each state, we used polling averages from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, in combination with a likely voter weight and allocation of undecided voters. The largest weight is given to polling averages, then ISLs, favorability ratings, and lastly, primary results received the least weight. When these data were not applicable, they were not used. As the general election date gets closer, the weight of polling averages will increase. The combination of the data determined the expected vote share for each candidate. With the numbers produced from the expected vote share, the model uses a normal distribution to produce the probability of a candidate receiving a larger vote share than their opposing candidate.

The model includes an uncertainty factor that will gradually decrease over time and reach 0 on the date of the general election. 

Independent candidates have been added to states where there has been official confirmation about their ballot access, and will be added to more states as the official requirements of each state have been reached.

Election forecasting models aren’t perfect predictors of election outcomes, but they can help paint a picture of what the results may look like in November.