Six Months Out: State of the Presidential Race

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With roughly six months until election day, it's time for a check-in on the candidates vying to be the next president of the United States.

Former President Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, has spent the past few weeks in court, facing trial for business fraud stemming from allegations that he falsified business records to cover up hush money payments made shortly before the 2016 election to an adult film star.

The trial started with testimony from David Pecker, publisher of The National Enquirer, who testified to helping Trump cover up alleged affairs. Next, jurors heard from former Trump aide Hope Hicks, who said that the release of the infamous "Access Hollywood" tape was a "damaging development" to the campaign, adding, "There was consensus amongst us all that the tape was damaging and this was a crisis."

Recently, Stormy Daniels, the former adult film star who allegedly had an affair with Trump and was paid to keep it a secret, took the stand. Daniels described her initial meeting with Trump at a golf tournament, followed by a dinner where Trump casually made dismissive comments about his wife, Melania. Daniels recalled her discomfort during her alleged sexual encounter with Trump, likening her experience to a "jump scare."

Also, Trump has been fined thousands of dollars and threatened with jail time for violating a gag order by publicly commenting about witnesses, jurors, and others closely connected to the case.

How is Trump's ongoing trial impacting his campaign and his election chances?

An analysis in ABC News (Lean Left bias) cited multiple polls to downplay the impact the trial is having on the presidential race, stating that most Americans already have an opinion on Trump and a hush-money trial is unlikely to change minds. "Unsurprisingly, there are wide partisan splits on all these questions, and polls continue to show that Republicans' support for Trump has remained unshaken by all of these charges. For voters who plan on voting for Trump in November, 76 percent told CNN that they would support Trump regardless of whether he is convicted of a crime."

A writer in the New York Post (Right bias) argued that the cases are only helping Trump's campaign by making him look like the target of a conspiracy, stating, "The message Democrats are inadvertently sending to the voting public is that this guy is so strong that we have to cheat to beat him and, oops, it’s not working." The writer credits Trump for using the criminal cases to his advantage, stating, "Only Trump could turn the adversity of 88 felony charges playing out simultaneously across two state courts and two federal districts in the middle of an election campaign into a rolled-gold opportunity for free wall-to-wall media coverage. "

Meanwhile, President Joe Biden, the incumbent nominee, is facing an party crisis. Across the nation, protesting college students and police officers are clashing as police attempt to clear out the encampment tent cities erected by the students to protest Israel's military actions in Gaza.

The protesters are young and progressive, a voting bloc that Biden needs to win. But other factions of the Democratic coalition are supportive of Israel and wary of antisemitism, and Biden needs those voters as well to win.

He has spent the past few months walking a tightrope in an effort to appease these two groups. Recently, he denounced violent protest while giving a speech addressing the encampments. Then he turned around and paused a shipment of weapons to Israel due to concerns over a potential offensive on Rafah.

Is he succeeding in walking this line?

A writer in CNN Opinion (Left bias) determined Biden's speech condemning the protests "won’t do much to improve Biden’s standing with the younger voters who have been disillusioned with the administration and unhappy with US support for Israel in its ongoing war against Hamas." The writer concluded, "Biden needs to grapple with the fact that the majority of Americans now disapprove of Israeli military actions in Gaza."

An article from the Washington Examiner (Lean Right bias) said Biden is abandoning Israel because he is "fearful of left-wing protesters." The article argued, "America’s global credibility is collapsing into the abyss between Biden’s rhetoric and reality. His equivocation and fecklessness in slithering away for electoral reasons from support of a staunch and indispensable ally promotes terrorism, gives succor to our enemies, and cannot but alarm our allies."

In conclusion, Trump is gaining steam while sitting in a courtroom, and Biden is losing ground while sitting in the Oval Office.

In other news, it was revealed this week that part of Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s brain was eaten by a worm.

More from AllSides

• We Aren't as Divided as we Think: AllSides partnered with More Like US to launch our latest product – Similarity Hub – which is a tool that reveals policy overlaps between Democrats and Republicans and points of agreement on political issues among Americans.
• 2024 Voter Guides: Here's where the presidential candidates stand on immigration, abortion, healthcare, gun control, education, foreign policy, infrastructure, and economic issues.
• Misinformation Watch: the global population passed eight billion in 2022. Is the world overpopulated?
• Media Bias: We reviewed coverage of pro-Palestinian protests spanning the political spectrum to uncover types of media bias present in national coverage.
• From the Center: "A party that’s at war with itself is almost always at a disadvantage, and internal Democratic discord over climate change, voting reform, immigration and now Gaza has created fundamental problems between Biden and the party’s progressive base."

More from the Left

Stormy Daniels turned the tables on Trump. And he had to watch it happen.
MSNBC (opinion)

"As a feminist, I was struck by just how deeply ironic it was to watch the man who ended millions of American women’s reproductive freedom face the woman whom he paid to silence. The list of allegations of Trump’s using his fame, wealth and status to impose himself on women is as long as it is lurid. More than a dozen women have accused him of sexual misconduct; unsurprisingly, he has denied all the claims."

More from the Right

The ‘Biden bump’ that didn’t last long
Byron York (opinion)

"Ever since President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address on March 7, the one in which he appeared to shout much of the time to prove his vigor, Democrats have been hoping for a Biden surge. A lot of that was just wish-casting. It simply did not make sense to many Democrats that former President Donald Trump could be under four indictments, and starting trial in one case, and still be leading Biden. It just seemed too crazy to accept. But it was true."

More from the Center

Will young voters ditch Biden over Israel? For most, it’s not a priority.
Christian Science Monitor

"Certainly, some students upset about Israel and Gaza might decide to stay home or cast a protest vote against Mr. Biden – and in a close election, even a small loss of support can hurt. Yet for all the passions currently on display, polling suggests the Middle East is not the determining issue for most young people that headlines make it out to be. Indeed, when it comes to political priorities, the younger generation isn’t all that different from older ones: They’re mostly focused on the economy."

See more big stories from the past week.