When a Candidate Self-Destructs on Television

From the Center

Stunned Democratic partisans have been asking themselves since last Thursday night exactly how their party’s nominee could have possibly turned in the worst and most alarming debate performance in presidential campaign history. The answer to their panicked question was written decades ago, when a character in Ernest Hemingway’s "The Sun Also Rises” explained how he had found himself in bankruptcy.

“Two ways,” Mike Campbell says to his questioner. “Gradually, then suddenly.”

The deterioration of Joe Biden has been taking place for years—in plain sight—on a global political stage. His aides have worked overtime to conceal his growing infirmities, and the reporters who cover the White House generally play along by ignoring or minimizing his decline until it becomes impossible to pretend that the 81-year-old president is not 81 years old. 

But we all see it. The most partisan among us blame the other party for either exaggerating or minimizing Biden’s struggles. Loyal Democrats excoriate conservatives for misleadingly editing video clips to show Biden in an even less flattering light. Republicans jeer the mainstream news media for not covering this aspect of the presidency more aggressively. The natural aging process of the nation’s first octogenarian chief executive became just another political talking point on both sides. 

As a result, the majority of Americans who are not fully invested in the never-ending food fight that now passes for political dialogue just stopped paying attention. Most voters are vaguely aware that Biden’s age has slowed him, and they have shared those concerns with pollsters for the last few years. But as a growing percentage of the population chooses to ignore the back-and-forth in Washington, Biden’s lack of vitality was a minor concern at best.

But that all changed last Thursday night. Through ninety minutes of debate, days of follow-up news coverage, and an ongoing stream of social media videos, Biden’s difficulties are now impossible to ignore. The nation reacted quickly and critically: almost three-quarters of respondents told pollsters that they doubted whether their president had the mental and cognitive skills needed for the office. What was debatable or ignorable was now crystal clear: Joe Biden is an old man who, under other circumstances, would be living out his golden years peacefully and nostalgically.

No such luxuries exist in Donald Trump’s America, at least not for those who believe that the fight against Trump is a battle for the country’s survival. Democratic primary voters employed more strategy than sentiment when they decided four years ago that Biden was their best option for defeating Trump. But they have not been especially loyal in their support for him during his time in office: there is no wellspring of emotion within party ranks on which he can draw now that he is in rough waters. The party’s decision process is cold and calculating: do we stand a better chance of beating Trump with a deeply flawed incumbent or an equally risky replacement.

At the moment this was written, the risk-averse faction of the party leadership appears to be holding firm. For the first few days after the debate, Biden’s team did an admirable job of projecting strength and continuity. But the doubters are not going away. And while few of even the most audacious gamblers see Vice President Kamala Harris as a wager worth making, there is no shortage of Democratic donors and pundits willing to roll the dice on an even less-tested governor or Cabinet member.

It would be surprising if the Biden doubters prevailed. There is no precedent for such a last-minute scramble for a presidential nomination in the television era (even the convention fights of 1960, 1968 and 1976 featured candidates who had been running against each other for months). Add the cacophony of cable news, digital platforms and social media, and it’s impossible to overstate the potential for chaos. For American voters who crave stability, such a fracas might not send a reassuring message.

But if the risk of entering such uncharted waters is significant, the potential payoff is even greater. Every day between now and November 5 is a potential senior moment for the senior president. Another unsettling performance from Biden could be catastrophic for the Democrats. The president’s detractors would suggest that hoping that such a moment does not occur is the biggest risk of all.

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Dan Schnur is a Professor at the University of California – Berkeley, Pepperdine University, and the University of Southern California, where he teaches courses in politics, communications and leadership. Dan is a No Party Preference voter, but previously worked on four presidential and three gubernatorial campaigns, serving as the national Director of Communications for the 2000 presidential campaign of U.S. Senator John McCain and the chief media spokesman for California Governor Pete Wilson. He has a Center bias.

This piece was reviewed and edited by Clare Ashcraft, Bridging & Bias Specialist (Center bias).