Historically, winning the Iowa caucuses usually means nothing — especially for Republicans

The Iowa caucuses are an event widely considered a barometer to determine the pretenders and contenders of the presidential election. Republicans have been looking forward to it since Jan. 21, 2021 – the day after President Joe Biden began his term. It is regularly touted as the first step in “hiring” the president. History tells a different story, however. Analysis of the results of past caucuses suggests it has been given a political prominence that it probably doesn’t deserve.

Do the Iowa caucuses represent any significant political importance, or are...