Haley surprises the pollsters, still loses to Trump

Just a week ago, on Jan. 16, the RealClearPolitics average of polls for the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary showed former President Donald Trump leading former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley by 13.2 points. That was a significant lead, but then it just kept growing: 15.6 points on Jan. 19, 18.2 points on Jan. 22, and 19.3 on election day.

In the face of such grim predictions, Haley and her top supporters sought to redefine downward what would constitute success in the primary. While, at one time, they...