When the Candidates Move to the Middle

From the Center

A successful campaign needs to do two things to win an election: first, motivate the party base, and then, persuade undecided voters. Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are very good at the first part of that equation, but as the presidential campaign moves into the home stretch, both candidates are scrambling to figure out how to accomplish the second.

While Trump’s move to the center has been more visible, Harris’ has been faster. Shortly after announcing her candidacy in late July, the vice president’s advisors let it be known that she had shifted previously held positions on fracking, health care and border policy. Harris has suggested that these changes were a result of her observation of how the Biden Administration has handled these issues during her time in the Biden Administration. In her first sit-down interview last week, she stressed that her “values had not changed” and that she believed she could accomplish the same goals in these areas through different means than she had indicated during her 2020 campaign.

But Harris has also begun a more fundamental repositioning, not just on specific policy matters, but in how she presents herself to the voting public. Last Thursday night, when CNN interviewer Dana Bash asked her to respond to Trump’s criticism of her racial and ethnic heritage, Harris blew the question off altogether.

“Same old, tired playbook,” she responded. “Next question, please.”

Similarly, when Bash asked Harris to discuss the potential impact of her candidacy and showed the much-circulated photo of her eight-year-old grandniece watching as she delivered her acceptance speech to the Democratic convention, Harris was only slightly less terse. “I am running because I believe that I am the best person to do this job at this moment, for all Americans, regardless of race and gender.”

Harris’ demographic identity makes her candidacy a historic one regardless of the outcome. In the past, female political leaders have talked about their gender as a means of inspiring female voters. Hillary Clinton (“There are now thirty million cracks in the glass ceiling”), Elizabeth Warren (“I’m running for president, because that's what girls do”) and Pat Schroeder (“I have a brain and a uterus and I use both”) all did it, as have many others. Similarly, candidates from underrepresented minority communities habitually talk about the breakthrough that their election would represent.

But Harris and her team have avoided this approach, recognizing that the voters who would be most excited by her identity are likely to already be strong supporters of her candidacy. In both of these instances, her responses were aimed squarely at the center of the political spectrum.

Similarly, when asked an open-ended question at the beginning of the interview about her priorities on office, Harris could have easily offered a full-throated battle cry on the topic of reproductive rights, promising to defend a woman’s right to a legal abortion. But voters who prioritize this issue are already lining up with Harris in large numbers, so she instead emphasized economic policy, especially her plans to “strengthen the middle class”. Again, she passed up an easy opportunity to fire up her base and instead targeted her message was directly toward undecided voters.

Trump’s goals are much more specific, and much more transparent. Ever since the 2022 midterm elections, he has recognized the threat that the abortion issue holds for him and other Republican candidates. As Harris has closed the gap and now pulled even in the polls, Trump has clearly decided that he needs to reassure pro-choice voters that they should not be worried about electing a former president whose Supreme Court nominees cast the decisive votes to overturn Roe vs. Wade. 

He began by posting an assertion on social media asserting that if elected, his presidency would “be great for women and their reproductive rights.” A few days later, he called for making the in vitro fertilization process free for all Americans. Trump hinted late last week that he might support a Florida ballot initiative that would overturn the state’s current six-week abortion ban, leading to a blowback from social conservatives that was so pronounced that he formally announced the next day that he would vote against the measure.

Harris will face similar challenges, balancing the demands of progressives and centrists on issues like immigration, energy and crime. The candidate who walks this line more adroitly will be the next president. 

Want to talk about this topic more? Join Dan for his webinar, “The Dan Schnur Political Report." And read more of Dan’s writing at www.danschnurpolitics.com.

Dan Schnur is a Professor at the University of California – Berkeley, Pepperdine University, and the University of Southern California, where he teaches courses in politics, communications and leadership. Dan is a No Party Preference voter, but previously worked on four presidential and three gubernatorial campaigns, serving as the national Director of Communications for the 2000 presidential campaign of U.S. Senator John McCain and the chief media spokesman for California Governor Pete Wilson. He has a Center bias.

This piece was reviewed and edited by Clare Ashcraft, Bridging Coordinator & Media Analyst (Center bias).